Wired · Jun 19, 2024
Adobe says it won’t train on artists’ work. Creatives aren’t convinced.
Tiffany Ng
Special report · Adobenauts
Will Adobe lead, or be left behind?
A financial fortress. A generation already creating somewhere else.
Start the storyScroll
$23.7B
2025 revenue
36%
operating margin
81%
Gen Z on Canva
$4.99
the first move
01 · Origins
Forty years of inventing the default.
Tap an era. Watch who was in the chair, and what they shipped.
John Warnock
Founder
1982Founding
1985Apple partnership
1987Illustrator
1990Photoshop
1993Acrobat & PDF
1999$1B revenue
2005Macromedia
2009Omniture
2012Creative Cloud
2018Magento + Marketo
RecurringLicenses → subscriptions
EngineThe fortress is built
2022Figma bid
2023$1B breakup fee
2024Firefly monetization
NowLead, or be left behind
02 · The arena
Still the giant. No longer the only door.
Professionals still live in Adobe. The next creators learned Canva and Figma first.
58.2%Adobe · creative tools
Adobe 58.2%
Canva 12.5%
Corel 11.4%
Others 8.0%
Affinity 6.9%
Autodesk 3.0%
In the room
CanvaFigmaAutodesk
CorelAffinityWix
InVisionFinal CutPowerPoint
Who owns the stock
Vanguard9.6%
BlackRock9.45%
State Street4.8%
Geode2.6%
UBS2.05%
03 · The stack
Not Photoshop. A system.
Four layers. Click through them.
Ps
Photos
Photoshop · Lightroom
Ai
Illustrations
Illustrator
Pr
Video
Premiere · Rush
Id
Pages
InDesign · Express
Xd
Product
XD · Dreamweaver
Ac
Acrobat
Desktop, web, mobile
IMS
Identity
Adobe IMS
AI
Generative
Acrobat AI + cache
Az
Azure OpenAI
With a content filter
Edge · Fastly CDN, WAF, DDoS
Observe · New Relic
Commerce · Adobe + AI
PaaS · Git
Cloud · AWS + Azure
Data
Collection into a real-time profile
Insights
Analytics · Journey · Mix Modeler
Orchestrate
Experience Platform · CDP
Engage
Target · Marketo · Ad Cloud
04 · The books
The engine still prints cash.
Scrub the years. Digital Media does the work.
$23.7B
TTM $23.18B, +10.7%
3:1LTV : CAC
36.29%Operating margin
33.18%ROE
$20.80EPS 2025
05 · Balance & P/L
Equity fell on purpose. Revenue did not.
Assets · Liabilities · Equity
Enterprise spending fell. The line dipped.
Creative Cloud replaced the box. Revenue went sideways while the model flipped.
Magento and Marketo pulled Experience Cloud up.
Regulators killed Figma. Adobe paid $1B and kept the cash engine.
Firefly started showing up in the growth story.
2024 cost mix
Sales & marketing39%
R&D27%
Cost of revenue16%
G&A10%
Figma fee7%
06 · The turning point
Same face. Three decades. A different tool.
Click an era. Creativity got faster. Adobe’s hold on the starter did not.
07 · GenAI race
Everyone wants the finish line. Adobe drew a thicker arrow.
Google
in the race
Microsoft
in the race
Meta
in the race
Apple
in the race
Adobe
Best AI platform
+150%R&D share, 2020 → 2025
+100new AI features across the apps
$1Binvested per year
08 · Compliance as armor
The next moat might be legal.
3AI cases on Adobe
$595mindustry fines
€35mlargest 2025 fine
118new US AI laws
259new laws, world
ICLG · Jul 16, 2024
EU tightens its grip on Big Tech with sweeping digital rules.
Rob Harkavy
09 · Fast, cheap, Gen Z approved
Canva took the classroom. Figma took the canvas.
MillennialsGen ZGen Alpha
The Verge · May 7, 2025
Figma’s big AI update takes on Adobe, WordPress, and Canva.
Jess Weatherbed
Bloomberg · May 23, 2024
Canva goes after Adobe users with work tools to speed growth.
Olivia Poh
10 · Inside Adobe
Strong foundation. Slowing agility.
Hover a card. Four tensions, one company.
11 · Wake-up call
The tape stopped paying for inevitability.
12 · Signals
Three futures from here.
Pick a path. The average still climbs. The low does not.
Low$280−14%
Average$457+40%
Median$450+38%
High$600+85%
13 · Three bets
We scored three doors. Only one opens this year.
14 · Try it
Adobe Studio. $4.99. Mobile first.
The twelve-month move, running in a phone.
9:41●●●
Adobe Studio
Templates, photos, AI images
Generate with Firefly
Text to image · 15 seconds
Create
Posters
Stock
One clear door
Free
Templates. Watermarked Firefly.
$4.99 / month
Full Firefly. Commercial use.
Start creating
FIREFLY · LIVE
Campus film-night poster, grain, Adobe red
Keep this one
Ready to post
First Adobe file. No 20-app install.
Make another
15 · Path
Crawl. Walk. Run.
Crawl · 12 months
Open the door
- Adobe Agile Studio taskforce
- $4.99 mobile, AI-first
- Creative Cloud Free for students
Walk · 1–3 years
Unify the desk
- Adobe One, fewer switches
- Firefly in every workflow
- Trusted AI as a product
Run · 3–5 years
Become the OS
- Most trusted creative AI
- Firefly Marketplace
- Every creator, everywhere
16 · The call
Vision in five years. One move in twelve months.
$4.99
Ship the mobile door first.
Become the world’s most trusted and accessible creative AI platform.Recommendation 1 · launch the Adobe Agile Studio taskforce
A simplified, low-cost tier. Mobile. AI-first.Recommendation 2 · next 12 months